2011 joplin missouri tornado peer review

The potential that climate change can aggravate existing conditions only gives more energy to the urgent need to protect society from a range of potentials. Thus the combination of current weather realities, population expansion, and infrastructure vulnerability in the United States are cause enough to warrant effective mitigation (i.e., damage prevention) disaster risk reduction strategies. 10 The low odds of a direct hit to any one building or a community, even in tornado alley, do not cultivate the urgency or need to bring buildings up to a higher code, for to do so would bear exorbitant upfront economic costs. More to that point, tornadoes, which can occur in a narrow area and indiscriminately strike buildings and people have a 1 in 5,000 chance of happening. In contrast, the spatial generality of storms (e.g., projection for hurricane landfall in the Gulf, versus hurricane landfall in Mobile, Alabama) reduces the chances of a direct hit. According to the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS), a direct hit from an earthquake is more widespread and potentially more destructive (having a 1 in 500 or 1 in 1000 chance of occurring per year). Moreover, building codes, though varying at the state and municipal levels (even for critical infrastructure), tend to be more stringent for earthquakes than severe weather because the codes are created based on the probability of destruction. This growth likely mirrored a real estate boom and expansion of the population into new spaces closer to weather risks. Census data that showed an increase in new hospital construction by 65% between the years 2000-2006 9. With respect to health care critical infrastructure (e.g., hospitals and clinics), a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) report cited U.S. More concerning is that floods are currently the leading weather-caused fatality in the United States (based on 30-year average and 20 fatality data). 7 Combined with population growth, significant concentrations of our society are exposed to flood risk.

6 Also a reported 55% of the total population lives within 50 miles of a coastline. In terms of extreme weather, the nation has the highest number of tornadoes of any country in the world. The United States, primarily a large continental mass, exhibits a multitude of regional weather patterns (e.g., Atlantic hurricanes, Midwest tornadoes, Pacific Northwest precipitation, and Southwest monsoon rains). These following considerations are realities of today and the foreseeable future, and are reason enough to spur mitigation and adaptation for critical infrastructures, most especially hospitals – the focus of this article. 4, 5, In essence, this argument holds that people and our buildings are moving into the path of storms, thus giving the appearance that more storms are occurring.Īs these investigations play out in science journals and discussions, there are some factors that decision-makers in the United States (from the community to federal levels) need to consider in recognizing our nation’s vulnerability to weather extremes, most especially to our critical infrastructures. 1, 2, 3 Others, on the other hand, say that recent losses are the result of population and economic growth. Some argue that these influences to climate have already contributed to higher losses, and this point is used as an indicator that severe weather patterns are increasing. Researchers in hydro-meteorology are investigating whether the anthropogenic (or human) component is leading to a stormy world. Will we have more frequent storms, more intense storms, or will former stormy areas experience more tranquil weather?ĭetermining these changes with accuracy is complex, primarily because one input (e.g., temperature rise) can yield singular or multiple outputs (e.g., deeper storm convection, wind flow changes, and precipitation changes) over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. To protect our critical infrastructures, in particular, and society, in general, it would be helpful to know what the weather of the future will look like. Photo by Meagan Jean Wooley.īy Wendy Marie Thomas, American Meteorological Society, Policy ProgramĪs Earth’s climate system changes, weather patterns, which are subordinate to climate, are subject to alterations.

Damage to a Joplin, Mo., hospital from the May 2011 tornado.

2011 joplin missouri tornado peer review